Quantitative Analysis and Market Intelligence Report: Tottenham vs Arsenal

The Premier League fixture on February 22, 2026, between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal represents a statistical anomaly in the modern era of the North London Derby. Entering matchweek 27, the divergence between these two historic rivals has reached an unprecedented level, with Arsenal positioned at the summit of the table with 58 points and Tottenham languishing in 16th place with only 29 points.

This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of the tactical, statistical, and market-based factors governing this encounter, intended for professional exchange traders and quantitative analysts.

1. Tactical & Personnel Overview

The tactical landscape of this derby is defined by the sudden appointment of Igor Tudor as Tottenham head coach following the departure of Thomas Frank. Tudor’s arrival on the day of his inaugural Premier League game—a “baptism of fire”—introduces a shift in defensive philosophy that may conflict with the catastrophic personnel availability currently plaguing the Spurs squad.

The Tudor Transition and Systemic Vulnerability

Igor Tudor has historically mandated a 3-4-2-1 formation throughout his managerial career, prioritizing high-intensity verticality and aggressive wing-back engagement. However, the inheritance of a squad decimated by twelve senior absences significantly compromises the structural integrity of this system. Tottenham enters this derby without James Maddison, Dejan Kulusevski, Destiny Udogie, and Pedro Porro, effectively removing their primary creative engines and progressive wide outlets.

The suspension of Cristian Romero, serving the second of a four-game ban, is arguably the most detrimental factor. Romero’s absence forces Tudor into a defensive compromise. To maintain a back-three structure, Joao Palhinha—a specialist defensive midfielder—has been dropped into the central defensive unit alongside Radu Dragusin and Micky van de Ven. While Palhinha possesses elite defensive metrics, his lack of experience in a three-man defensive line, specifically one required to hold a Tudor-style high line, creates a significant risk against Arsenal’s elite movement.

Arsenal’s Structural Maturity and Technical Superiority

Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal side represents the antithesis of Tottenham’s current instability. Arsenal has established a repeatable tactical rhythm defined by territorial pressure and “violent moments of transition control”. Their 4-2-3-1 hybrid system utilizes a double pivot of Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi, which has been instrumental in securing the division’s best defensive record, conceding only 18 goals in 26 matches prior to the recent wolves draw.

The return of Martin Ødegaard from a knee injury and Kai Havertz from a muscle injury significantly bolsters Arsenal’s offensive ceiling. Ødegaard’s presence allows Bukayo Saka to return to his primary wide-right position after a temporary central stint. The tactical synergy between Saka and Ødegaard in the right-half space is likely to overwhelm Tottenham’s left side, where Djed Spence—naturally a right-sided player—is expected to start out of position due to Udogie’s injury.

Predicted Personnel Impact and Starting Configurations

The confirmed lineups for February 22, 2026, underscore the discrepancy in squad depth and tactical readiness.

The inclusion of Randal Kolo Muani over Dominic Solanke—who begins on the bench after suffering from a sore throat—suggests a focus on transition pace. However, Kolo Muani’s effectiveness is tied to the service provided by Xavi Simons and Conor Gallagher, who must operate in areas of the pitch heavily patrolled by Rice and Zubimendi, who have recorded 36 and 33 possession regains respectively this season.

2. Statistical Deep Dive (xG & Patterns)

The statistical profile of the 2025/26 campaign reveals a league leader in Arsenal whose underlying numbers support their title aspirations, contrasted with a Tottenham side whose data suggests they are fortunate to not be deeper in the relegation mire.

Expected Goals (xG) Performance vs. Actual Results

Over the last ten league games, Arsenal’s xG generation has remained elite, averaging approximately 1.72 xG per 90 minutes. Their cumulative seasonal xG of 47.30 resulted in 52 actual goals, a sustainable overperformance that highlights the clinical finishing of Viktor Gyökeres and Leandro Trossard. More significantly, Arsenal’s defensive xGA (Expected Goals Against) of 19.49 aligns almost perfectly with their 20 goals conceded, indicating a structurally sound defense that does not rely on goalkeeping overperformance.

Tottenham’s profile is highly volatile. They have scored 36 goals from an xG of only 28.79, an overperformance that typically regresses toward the mean over a full season. Defensively, the situation is dire; they have conceded at least two goals in each of their last six Premier League matches. This defensive collapse is reflected in an xGA that has ballooned since the loss of Cristian Romero to suspension and Micky van de Ven to intermittent hip and thigh injuries.

Time-Segment Analysis: 15-Minute Goal Intervals

Patterns in goal timing for the 2025/26 season suggest that the period immediately surrounding half-time is critical for this matchup. Arsenal has demonstrated a proficiency for “strangling” games late in the first half. In the reverse fixture, goals in the 36th and 41st minutes shattered Tottenham’s defensive resolve.

Time Interval	Arsenal Goals Scored (Est. %)	Tottenham Goals Conceded (Est. %)
0′ – 15′	12%	15%
16′ – 30′	18%	14%
31′ – 45′	24%	22%
46′ – 60′	15%	18%
61′ – 75′	16%	16%
76′ – 90+’	15%	15%

The concentration of Arsenal’s offensive output in the 31′-45′ window is historically significant in derbies. Furthermore, the league-wide trend of 13.2% of goals being scored after the 90th minute creates significant tail-risk for “Under” goal traders on the Betfair Exchange.

Personnel Impact: Injury Adjustments on xG/xGA

The quantitative impact of Tottenham’s injury crisis can be modeled by assessing the xG-Chain and progressive pass contributions of missing personnel. James Maddison’s absence removes approximately 0.45 xG-buildup per 90 minutes, while Pedro Porro’s inability to start reduces Tottenham’s high-value cross volume by 35%.

Defensively, the loss of Romero increases Tottenham’s xGA by an estimated 0.32 per game, primarily due to the drop in successful “last-man” tackles and recoveries, where Romero previously led the team. Arsenal, conversely, welcomes back Ødegaard, whose individual passing accuracy (94% in high-pressure zones for similar elite players) serves as the primary catalyst for their final-third entries.

Tactical Analysis: High-Press Efficiency and Line Height

Arsenal’s high-press, measured by PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action), is among the most efficient in the league. They utilize a 4-4-2 press with Merino or Trossard curving runs to force opposition center-backs toward the touchline. Tottenham’s struggles against this press were evident in the previous derby, where they were held to a total xG of 0.07.

Tottenham’s defensive line height under Tudor is expected to be aggressive, yet the lack of pace in a backline featuring Radu Dragusin and an out-of-position Palhinha makes them vulnerable to “direct runs in behind”. Arsenal exploited this vulnerability for their fourth goal in the November fixture, and with Ødegaard returning to provide the through-balls, this remains a primary goal-scoring mechanism for the Gunners.

3. Quantitative Model Results (Fair Odds)

The predictive model utilized for this report is a Python-based Poisson Distribution simulation, which calculates scoreline probabilities by comparing team-specific offensive and defensive “strengths” against league averages for the 2025/26 season.

Model Parameters & Calibration

• League Mean Home Goals: 1.48
• League Mean Away Goals: 1.22
• Arsenal Away Attack Strength: 1.23 (Based on 1.50 goals per away game)
• Arsenal Away Defense Strength: 0.70 (Based on 0.86 goals conceded per away game)
• Tottenham Home Attack Strength: 1.04 (Based on 1.20 goals per home game)
• Tottenham Home Defense Strength: 1.20 (Based on 1.38 goals conceded per home game)

The model adjusts the $\lambda$ (expected goals) for each team to account for current personnel. Tottenham’s $\lambda$ is adjusted downward by 15% due to the Maddison/Solanke/Porro situation, while Arsenal’s $\lambda$ is adjusted upward by 10% for the return of Ødegaard and Havertz.

Simulated Win/Draw/Loss Percentages

Outcome	Model Probability	Calculated Fair Odds
Arsenal Win	68.4%	1.46
Draw	18.2%	5.49
Tottenham Win	13.4%	7.46

Fair Odds for Major Markets

The following fair odds are calculated to identify potential “Value Gaps” against current Betfair Exchange prices.

Correct Score Probability Matrix (Heatmap)

TOT \ ARS	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	11.6%	12.5%	9.0%	4.8%
1	4.1%	8.7%	9.4%	6.7%	3.6%
2	1.5%	3.3%	3.5%	2.5%	1.4%

The simulation identifies 0-2 (12.5%) and 0-1 (11.6%) as the most probable outcomes, highlighting a strong lean toward an Arsenal clean sheet.

4. Summary Table of Suggested Trades

The following table synthesizes the quantitative modeling and tactical insights into actionable exchange positions.

In conclusion, the February 2026 North London Derby is statistically weighted toward an Arsenal victory. The primary value lies not in the Match Odds—which are accurately priced—but in the defensive markets where the market under-weights the impact of Tottenham’s missing personnel on their goal-scoring capacity.